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 ITS HAPPENING!

 Oscar Palacios

  Presidente

Humanity is facing the first clear evidence of dangerous climate change. The Arctic situation is snowballing and these dangerous changes from accumulated anthropogenic greenhouse gases are leading to more activities conducive to further greenhouse gas emissions, turning this situation with the momentum of a runaway train, posing a threat to global food stocks, and to human security. We are now in an era where climate change isn't some kind of future hypothetical and nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change. It is past time to cut greenhouse gas emissions and we have to start planning for sea walls and other infrastructure that offer some protection against climate change. The world has to adapt and the world has to mitigate.

I was talking with a friend few days ago after more than 30 years since we got out of college and got back in contact again through LinkedIn. When I told him what I was working on and what was going on with global warming and climate change in the Arctic, he said to me “don’t worry we are going to be dead by them anyway because this is going to happened in more than 100 years”. His answer made me realize how no one has been putting much attention to this reality thinking that this is some kind of futuristic hypothetical apocalypses thus I felt compelled to write about the latest and very worrying information that has been release through this year about this issue.

                                                    

The Arctic permafrost has been for the past 10 years an area of intense research focus because of its climate threat. The frozen ground holds enormous stores of methane trap by the ice when this gas rises from inside the earth, as well as when is made by microbes living in the soil. Scientists has worry that the warming Arctic could lead to rapidly melting permafrost, releasing all that stored methane and creating a global warming feedback loop as the methane in the atmosphere traps heat and melts even more permafrost. In 2010, team members Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov of the Swedish/Russian/US Arctic Ocean Investigation of Climate-Cryosphere-Carbon Interactions, the SWERUS-C3 program, estimated the accumulated methane potential for the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf alone to be about 500 Gt (Gigatons) of organic carbon in the permafrost. Shakhova wrote a paper warning that the release of up to 50 Gt of hydrate store was highly possible for abrupt release at any time. Last year, a team of researchers including Professor Peter Wadhams, professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge, calculated that such a 50 Gt release would cause global damage with a price tag of US$60 to US$70 trillion.

 

Unfortunately these events may be already unfolding in the Arctic Ocean and huge quantities of methane may be erupting from the seafloor of the East Siberian Sea and entering the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean.

 

The Artic News Blog and other related sites have reported that on August of this year peak levels of methane gas as high as 2441ppb (parts per billion) were recorded at an altitude of up to 36,850 ft. (11,232 m) over the East Siberian Sea originated from the seafloor, This methane eruptions helped push up mean global methane levels in the planet. Ironically, the report stated that these eruptions started just as an international SWERUS-C3 team of scientists from Sweden, Russia and the U.S., visiting the Arctic Ocean to measure methane, had ended their research. However SWERUS-C3 researchers have on earlier expeditions documented extensive venting of methane from the subsea system to the atmosphere over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

 

Arctic News also reported that the sea surface temperatures as high as 18.8°C are now recorded at convergence locations where warm water from the Pacific Ocean are threatening to invade the Arctic Ocean. At the same time, huge amounts of very warm water are carried into the Arctic Ocean by the Gulf Stream through the North Atlantic and at greater depths (about 300 m), the Gulf Stream is pushing even warmer water through the Greenland Sea.

 

Researchers think the permafrost warming started only recently. Professor Wadhams head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge University stated that this is the first time in 12,000 years the Arctic Ocean has warmed up 7 degrees in the summer, and that's entirely new because the sea ice hasn't been there to hold the temperatures down. The summer ice melt season has lasted longer since 2005, giving the sun more time to warm the ocean.

 

But don’t believe me!, just listen to top scientists like Dr. Jennifer Francis, Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Jeff Masters, Dr. Natalia Shakhova, Dr. Igor Semiletov, Dr. Peter Wadhams, Dr. James Hansen, Dr. Steve Vavrus, Dr. Ron Prinn, Dr. Kevin Schaefer, Dr. Nikita Zimov, Dr. Jorien Vonk, and a growing list of many, many more in the next video:

The left image above gives an idea of the amount of heat transported into the Arctic Ocean and as the earth get warmer more heat will be transported into the region creating a feedback loop that will accelerate the whole process so it is only going to get worst from now on and we’ll have no choice but to face the consequences.

 

On the other side of the planet a new study by researchers at NASA and the University of California, Irvine, has find that a rapidly melting section of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appears to be in an irreversible state of decline, with nothing to stop the glaciers in this area from melting into the sea. According to glaciologist and lead author Eric Rignot, of UC Irvine and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, the study indicates that the glaciers in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica have passed the point of no return and are already contributing significantly to sea level rise, releasing almost as much ice into the ocean annually as the entire Greenland Ice Sheet. These glaciers contain enough ice to raise global sea level by 4 feet (1.2 meters) and are melting faster than most scientists had expected. Rignot said that the fact that this glacier’s retreat is happening simultaneously over a large sector suggests that it was triggered by a common cause, such as an increase in the amount of ocean heat beneath the floating sections of the glaciers and at this point, the end of this sector appears to be inevitable.

 

Despite the fact that August eruptions is yet to be confirm and the news has only been broadcasted through related blogs and websites, It looks like US governments official and even the United Nations seems to know something already that has put them on alerts.  

 

On February of 2014 the British newspaper “The Guardian” reported that senior US government officials were briefed at the White House on the danger of an ice-free Arctic in the summer within two years. Among senior scientists advising the US government at the meeting there was 10 Arctic specialists, including marine scientist Prof Carlos Duarte, director of the Oceans Institute at the University of Western Australia. Duarte warned that the Arctic summer sea ice was melting at a rate faster than predicted by conventional climate models, and could be ice free as early as 2015, rather than toward the end of the century, as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected in 2007.

 

Duarte said that the Arctic situation is snowballing and these dangerous changes from accumulated anthropogenic greenhouse gases are leading to more activities conducive to further greenhouse gas emissions, turning this situation with the momentum of a runaway train and concluded with his team that humanity is facing the first clear evidence of dangerous climate change.

 

NASA satellite imagery from March 2013 reveals massive cracks in ice connecting Beaufort Gyre region to Alaska. New research suggests that the Arctic summer sea ice loss is linked to extreme weather. Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis points to the phenomenon of "Arctic amplification", where the loss of Arctic summer sea ice and the rapid warming of the far North are altering the Jet Stream over North America, Europe, and Russia. Scientists are just beginning to understand how these profound shifts may be increasing the likelihood of more persistent and extreme weather that over the last few years, apparently driven by the accelerating Arctic melt process, include unprecedented heat waves and droughts in the US and Russia and currently in Latin-American countries such as Colombia, along with snowstorms and cold weather in northern Europe. These events have undermined harvests, dramatically impacting global food production and contributing to civil unrest. The US Homeland Security Department's Climate Change Roadmap released last year raised similar issues, warning that climate change could directly affect the Nation's critical infrastructure, as well as aggravating conditions that could enable terrorist activity, violence, and mass migration.

 

More recently, this year 2015, a work by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) determined that the planet keeps on getting warmer and setting record temperatures as climate change shows a nonstop advance. However despite this figures, what it seems most alarming to scientists is a spot in the earth where temperatures not only doesn’t increase but it actually gets lower. It is located south of Greenland, in the North Atlantic, and it could be a key aspect to measure the climate disaster.

 

This phenomenon could be related to something that could be fatal to the entire world, the thermohaline circulation paralyzation. This current is key to how the Atlantic Ocean function, therefore the planet. Due to this current the ocean is stabilized as the cold and denser water from the north sink and the warmer water from the South Seas takes its place in the surface in a continuous cycle. This readjust the salinity of the waters, the temperature and the water level in all the ocean.

 

Everything points that its deceleration is due to the thaw of the zone as this causes to have more fresh water in the sea, making the cold water from the north lighter, hindering the ocean flow as well as paralyzing the cycle. This could provoke changes in all the currents causing imminent damages in the ecosystem difficult to forecast. Some scientists had already forewarned in an article published in the scientific magazine “Nature Climate Change” of March, 2015, of a continuous increase of temperatures and the danger of this current to destabilize. According to these experts if this tendency continue it could provoke the rise of the sea in the east coast of the United States and possibly a difference in the global temperature of the North Atlantic and Europe.   

 

Already on May of 2014 a group of international climate scientists including professor Wadhams from Cambridge University called on governments to recognize that the dramatic loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic would amplify the types of extreme weather events that have already affected the world's major food basket regions, undermining global food production for the foreseeable future with serious consequences for international security. World food production can be expected to decline, with mass starvation inevitable and the price of food will rise inexorably, producing global unrest and making food security even more of an issue.

 

Furthermore on March of 2014 “The Guardian” also published a United Nations report that raised the threat of climate change to a whole new level, warning of sweeping consequences to life and livelihood. The report from the UN's intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that climate change was already having effects in real time, melting sea ice and thawing permafrost in the Arctic, killing off coral reefs in the oceans, and leading to heat waves, heavy rains and mega-disasters. And the worst was yet to come. The blockbuster report warned that climate change posed a threat to global food stocks, and to human security. The chairman of the IPCC Rajendra Pachauri also said that nobody on this planet was going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change and Chris Field, one of the two main authors of the report said that we were now in an era where climate change was not some kind of future hypothetical.

 

The report catalogued some of the natural disasters around the planet since 2000 such as killer heat waves in Europe, wildfires in Australia, and deadly floods in Pakistan taking a disproportionate toll on poor, weak and elderly people. The scientists said governments did not have systems in place to protect those populations. “This would really be a severe challenge for some of the poorest communities and countries in the world,” said Maggie Opondo, a geographer from the University of Nairobi and one of the authors.

 

This report draws a clear line connecting climate change to food scarcity and conflict. It has already cut into the global food supply and global crop yields have beginning to decline, especially for wheat as well as reductions in maize, raising doubts as to whether production could keep up with population growth.

 

Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton professor and an author of the report expressed that the future was looking even grimmer as Climate Change was acting as a brake when we need yields to grow to meet growing demand and other food sources were also under threat. According to the report fish catches in some areas of the tropics were projected to fall by between 40% and 60%, also connecting climate change to rising food prices and political instability such as the riots in Asia and Africa after food price shocks in 2008.

 

David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University's center for food security developed the software models that predicted that the impacts already evident in many places in the world and said that is not something that is only going to happen in the future, Lobell expressed that almost everywhere you see the warming effects having a negative effect on wheat and corn and that these were not yet enormous effects but they show clearly that the trends were big enough to be important; a specially relevant consideration now that FAO has estimated that one billion tons of cereals and 200 million tons of meat will be required to feed a world population that by 2050 will reach 9.5 billion, and in order to reach these food production levels it will be required over 450 million hectares of land (32% of the total land currently cultivated in the world) and at least fifty percent more of the water use today for agriculture in our planet. However when we consider that of total water available in our planet for humanity 70% is currently use for agriculture production, 28% is for other industries and the remaining 2% is for human consumption, where will this needed water come from?

 

The amount of fresh water on the earth has not change significantly in millions of years however the population has increased exponentially and in the last century alone the world population grew five times while the use of water grew over six times. Half of the planet population already live in urban areas and this number will increase together with the pressure to supply them with clean water while they still don’t wake up to the reality the will have to face.      

 

Under the IPCC emissions scenarios, higher temperatures are projected to affect all aspects of the hydrological cycle. More frequent and severe droughts and floods are already apparent and the twenty first century projections will make mega-droughts of the past seem like walk in the Garden of Eden. The impacts will increase as a growing population becomes more dependent upon a set of atmospheric and hydrological circulations. Climate Change will impact the extent and productivity of both irrigated and rain fed agriculture across the globe. Reductions in river runoff and aquifer recharge are expected in the Mediterranean basin and in the semi-arid areas of the Americas, Australia and southern Africa, affecting water availability in regions that are already water-stressed. In Asia, the large contiguous areas of irrigated land that rely on snowmelt and high mountain glaciers for water will be affected by changes in runoff patterns, while highly populated deltas are at risk from a combination of reduced inflows, increased salinity and rising sea levels. Everywhere, rising temperatures will translate into increased crop water demand. Both the livelihoods of rural communities and the food security of a predominantly urban population are therefore at risk from water-related impacts linked primarily to climate variability.

 

Scientists hoped to persuade governments and the public that it is past time to cut greenhouse gas emissions and we have to start planning for sea walls and other infrastructure that offer some protection against climate change. Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC considers that the one message that comes out of this report is that “the world has to adapt and the world has to mitigate”.

 

Our civilization has no choice but to re-invent the way we do things and this is something that it is also happening!

 

The voices of change are no longer common citizens or idealistic young environmentalist protesting in front of hotel lobbies waiting for G8 or the United Nations’ leaders. Now important politicians and representatives from the business and financing world are the ones that have publicly and officially declare their migration to all kind of green energies initiatives. Recently Stephen Heinz, president of The Rockefeller Brother’s Foundation confirmed their decision to abandon de oil business to plunge into the so called green energies. A total paradox for a dynasty that although no longer has controls over the markets have a strong presence in petroleum multinationals that where denounced many times for environmental pollution. The initiative is part of the Global Divest-Invest, a network that started some years ago in Universities campus of the US and now has the support not only from multinationals but social movements, Hollywood stars and presidents as well.       

 

In this respect huge advances have been emerging in relation to the transportation industry. We have developed fast bullet train the uses a technology called electro hydro magnetism that allows the train to float on the rails reaching extraordinary high speeds using solar energy. The automotive industry has been making headlines with new hybrids cars the save huge on gas, and we have also developed hydrogen fuel cell engines, compress air engines and just recently the saltwater technology has now been certified for use on European roads. A 920 horsepower (680 kW) sport automobile uses something known as an electrolyte flow cell power system to power four electric motors within the car reaching 0-60 mph (100 km/h) in 2.8 seconds, making it as fast as the McLaren P1 and an impressive 217.5 mph (350 km/h) using nothing but saltwater. The potential of the NanoFlowcell is much greater, especially in terms of domestic energy supplies as well as in maritime, rail and aviation technology.        

On the other hand, the current industries that releases 65% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can reduce and mitigate these emissions with a technology called carbon capture and storage (CCS), that involves capturing CO2 produced by large industrial plants, compressing it for transportation and then injecting it deep into a rock formation at a carefully selected and safe site, where it is permanently stored.

 

But most of the remaining 35% of CO2 emissions comes from deforestation and agriculture. When forests are cut down not only does carbon absorption cease, but the one stored in the trees is released into the atmosphere as CO2 when the wood is burned or even if it is left to rot after the deforestation process. Any realistic plan to reduce global warming pollution sufficiently and in time to avoid more dangerous consequences must rely in part on preserving tropical forests, however the biggest driver of deforestation is agriculture as farmers cut forests to provide more room for planting crops or grazing livestock. Throughout Latin America, rainforest deforestation is dominated by the establishment primarily of pastures but also cropland, irrespective of the characteristics of soils, climate regimes, and topography. This is critical fact when we consider that in the next 35 years the world’s population will reach close to 9 billion, and will demand more than double the food we hardly produce today and half of this population will not have access to potable water.

 

As in every other industry we in agriculture have no choice but to also re-invent the way we do things. We have to remember that most of the current site where we are doing or planning to do some kind of agriculture activity will may not be fit in a near future. Climate Change is leading to extreme heat waves, heavy rains and mega-disasters and the worst is yet to come endangering the livelihoods of agriculture communities. It will impact the extent and productivity of both irrigated and rain fed agriculture across the globe with an increased crop water demand.

 

Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of Climate Change and we have to start planning for infrastructures that will offer some protection for our crops and animals from extreme weather and this is also already happening.    

 

Some ten or more years ago, when aquaponics was starting to been known by the scientific community as a feasible and innovating food production technic, many scientist gave thanks for having a new food production system with the potential to face future challenges. It was then as today considered the most effective agriculture technology in terms of its water use efficiency while hydroponics farms back then were not as efficient in its water use as they are today. Still scientist where not short on their vision and today many high-tech. farms are starting to pop up all over the world inside unimaginable spaces such as old warehouses in Holland and Chicago, inflatable domes and old semiconductor factories in Japan and even on rooftops of buildings in Brooklyn, using hydroponics and  aquaponics for its operations with cutting edge systems for environment monitoring and control in order to operate with optimal levels of temperature, humidity, air quality, CO2 content and artificial lighting, accelerating plants growth to more than double of the normal speed. However despite that all these companies have achieved an increase in its farming efficiency all these innovative technologies requires high energy consumption.  

 

In this regard what makes the Aquaponias de Venezuela Foundation technological proposal most relevant and transcendental with a superior feasibility and profitability with respect to other already established initiatives, is that with aquaponics we have integrated a sewage water and solid waste management systems that follows a zero-waste and use criteria combining technologies that at first sight don’t look that could stamp a significant impact on any agriculture operation but indeed makes the difference. We can recycle water, produce bio-carbon, a process by-product that can reduce global emissions of carbon dioxide, methane gas and nitric oxide in about 12% each year when added to poor nutrient and depleted soils with positive effects in crops production, but most important we can generate our own electrical power by means of natural green unlimited sources, eliminating the use of expensive local network and obtain the required water with no intervention to man-made and natural reservoirs, reserved for the local population consumption, using rain water and harvesting the water vapor in the air.

 

We took the basic design of the well proven UVI raft hydroponics channels (DFRT) and brought in smaller profile it to an improved and sturdy vertical structural concept that allows natural sun illumination and is capable to withstand hurricane wind forces and its flying debris. We also designed an efficient filtering system to eliminate suspended solids in the water from aquaculture tanks, capable of minimalizing, even more, the characteristic low water consumption of traditional aquaponics also including all the innovative technologies like artificial lighting, electronic sensors, water pumps and environmental temperature, humidity, oxygen and CO2 control. On the other hand, unlike other aquaponics farms that concentrate its production strategies in fresh produce only, our Vertical Aquaponics Farm was conceived as an Agroindustry Complex with the Solar Aquapiramids units as a production core for organic raw material, surrounded by food processing and valued added product manufacturing units, a key factor that makes the difference in current markets since we can obtain the high profits potential of finished valued added products manufacturing companies.

But we went even further as to expand our productive scope by including in this complex design a livestock forage production unit using an exceptional adaptation to recirculate aquaculture tanks water through an NFT (Nutrient Film Technic) system for intensive livestock green forage production without the use of expensive liquid fertilizers. This setup can provide all the pasture needed to feed milking goats and eventually other livestock such as lambs, pork and milking and meat cattle in closed controlled environment rearing units that keep all year around optimal environmental conditions for maximum fattening or milk production. The concept shows the potential for low cost of organic milk, cheese and meat production while eliminating between 17 to 18% of total greenhouse gases released in to the atmosphere representing a practical, profitable and sustainable alternative to eliminate the need for deforesting 14 million hectares of forest every year and stops greenhouses gases, produced by millions of ruminants before been formed and released in to the environment.

 

Our technological proposal is not such as GMO or other un-natural controvertial solutions. We have only adapted and improved the best natural environmental conditions set for optimum plants and animal production in a close protected structure. Aquaponics simply mimics what nature already does to clean and interact with life in natural bodies of water. We don’t discharge waste back into the environment and we keep a constant R&D to develop new lines of organic products to reach a production and variety equivalent to a regular supermarket, all year around and under any kind of extreme climate. If implemented in a big scale we will be able to exert a significant impact against the ecological foot print that current food production industry leave in the environment as well as to produce enough quality food for the current and future demand and with extraordinary competitive prices.   

 

At the Aquaponias de Venezuela Foundation we believe that this new food production concept is poise to be one of the most relevant initiatives to adapt and mitigate and to change the way we do things for the creation of modern, societies with green sustainable economies.

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